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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Redland Z v Redland B (Wed 16 Nov 2016)Match played between Tim Hayden (home) and Ben Dillistone (away).Match won by Tim Hayden. Result: 9-2,9-0,9-2. Starting level for Tim Hayden: 3,273, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Ben Dillistone: 2,470, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Tim Hayden to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Ben Dillistone. Tim Hayden won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Hayden played 164% better than Ben Dillistone in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Hayden actually played at a level of 4,620 and Ben Dillistone at a level of 1,750. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Hayden changes to +35% and Ben Dillistone changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Hayden becomes +11.5% and for Ben Dillistone becomes -8.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Tim Hayden is +8.6% and for Ben Dillistone is -6.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Dillistone is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Hayden: 75%, Ben Dillistone: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Hayden: 53%, Ben Dillistone: 64%. A final adjustment of -2.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim Hayden: 3,509, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Ben Dillistone: 2,253, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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