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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bath 3 v Whitchurch Imperial A (Wed 09 Nov 2016)Match played between Miles Jeanneret (home) and Bill Hope (away).Match won by Miles Jeanneret. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-1. Starting level for Miles Jeanneret: 1,788, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Bill Hope: 1,264, level confidence: 58%. Miles Jeanneret to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Bill Hope. Miles Jeanneret won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jeanneret played 164% better than Bill Hope in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jeanneret actually played at a level of 2,443 and Bill Hope at a level of 925. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret changes to +24% and Bill Hope changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret becomes +10.2% and for Bill Hope becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret is +7.7% and for Bill Hope is -10.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Bill Hope is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jeanneret: 85%, Bill Hope: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jeanneret: 62%, Bill Hope: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Miles Jeanneret: 1,895, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Bill Hope: 1,214, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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