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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bath 3 v University of Bristol Sharks (Tue 15 Nov 2016)Match played between Miles Jeanneret (home) and Louis 'Plateau' Hodge (away).Match won by Miles Jeanneret. Result: 9-0,9-3,9-3:9-1,9-6,9-7:1-9,9-1,9-5,4-9,9-5:9-0,9-3,9-0:?-?. Starting level for Miles Jeanneret: 1,895, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Louis 'Plateau' Hodge: 1,156, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Miles Jeanneret to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Louis 'Plateau' Hodge. Miles Jeanneret won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jeanneret played 118% better than Louis 'Plateau' Hodge in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jeanneret actually played at a level of 2,185 and Louis 'Plateau' Hodge at a level of 1,002. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret changes to +12% and Louis 'Plateau' Hodge changes to -8.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret becomes +5.7% and for Louis 'Plateau' Hodge becomes -5.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret is +4.3% and for Louis 'Plateau' Hodge is -4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jeanneret: 78%, Louis 'Plateau' Hodge: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jeanneret: 68%, Louis 'Plateau' Hodge: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Miles Jeanneret: 1,928, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Louis 'Plateau' Hodge: 1,138, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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