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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bath 3 v University of Bristol Sharks (Tue 15 Nov 2016)Match played between Shalin Bhanot (home) and Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb (away).Match won by Shalin Bhanot. Result: 1-9,9-1,9-5,4-9,9-5. Starting level for Shalin Bhanot: 1,630, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 1,119, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Shalin Bhanot to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb. Shalin Bhanot won 60% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shalin Bhanot played 9% better than Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb in this match. As Shalin Bhanot has played below his allowed range at 1,340, his level reduction is 10.4% before damping. On the assumption that Shalin Bhanot would normally have been playing at level 1,561 (based on typical behaviour), Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shalin Bhanot changes to -8.5% and Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb changes to +10.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shalin Bhanot becomes -4.7% and for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb becomes +6.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Shalin Bhanot is -3.5% and for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb is +4.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shalin Bhanot: 85%, Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shalin Bhanot: 73%, Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 76%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Shalin Bhanot: 1,573, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 1,182, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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