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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bristol Sharks v University of Bath 3 (Tue 11 Oct 2016)Match played between George 'Ez' Allen (home) and Harry 'The Butcher' Colley (away).Match won by George 'Ez' Allen. Result: 9-5,9-2,9-3. Starting level for George 'Ez' Allen: 2,318, level confidence: 26%. Starting level for Harry 'The Butcher' Colley: 1,456, level confidence: 53%. George 'Ez' Allen to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Harry 'The Butcher' Colley. George 'Ez' Allen won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George 'Ez' Allen played 67% better than Harry 'The Butcher' Colley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George 'Ez' Allen actually played at a level of 2,374 and Harry 'The Butcher' Colley at a level of 1,422. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George 'Ez' Allen changes to +1.9% and Harry 'The Butcher' Colley changes to -0.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George 'Ez' Allen becomes +1.4% and for Harry 'The Butcher' Colley becomes -0.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for George 'Ez' Allen is +1% and for Harry 'The Butcher' Colley is -0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George 'Ez' Allen: 51%, Harry 'The Butcher' Colley: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George 'Ez' Allen: 50%, Harry 'The Butcher' Colley: 71%. A final adjustment of -1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George 'Ez' Allen: 2,303, level confidence: 50%. Final level for Harry 'The Butcher' Colley: 1,433, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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