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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown B v Weston (Thu 29 Sep 2016)Match played between Charlotte Weldrake (home) and Sue Roberts (away).Match won by Charlotte Weldrake. Result: 9-2,9-4,9-3. Starting level for Charlotte Weldrake: 868, level confidence: 29%. Starting level for Sue Roberts: 427, level confidence: 33%. Charlotte Weldrake to win as she is currently playing 103% better than Sue Roberts. Charlotte Weldrake won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlotte Weldrake played 76% better than Sue Roberts in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Charlotte Weldrake was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 637 and 868 without affecting her level. In this case, Charlotte Weldrake played at level 754 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Charlotte Weldrake would normally have been playing at level 757 (based on typical behaviour), Sue Roberts played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlotte Weldrake changes to 0% and Sue Roberts changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlotte Weldrake becomes 0% and for Sue Roberts becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Winter 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Charlotte Weldrake is 0% and for Sue Roberts is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlotte Weldrake: 54%, Sue Roberts: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlotte Weldrake: 50%, Sue Roberts: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlotte Weldrake: 868, level confidence: 50%. Final level for Sue Roberts: 427, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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