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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Panthers v Weston (Thu 17 Nov 2016)Match played between Helen Garrott (home) and Rosa Venables (away).Match won by Helen Garrott. Result: 9-1,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Helen Garrott: 776, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Rosa Venables: 318, level confidence: 70%. Helen Garrott to win as she is currently playing 144% better than Rosa Venables. Helen Garrott won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Helen Garrott played 379% better than Rosa Venables in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Helen Garrott actually played at a level of 1,087 and Rosa Venables at a level of 227. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Helen Garrott changes to +24% and Rosa Venables changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Helen Garrott becomes +13.1% and for Rosa Venables becomes -10.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Winter 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Helen Garrott is +9.8% and for Rosa Venables is -7.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rosa Venables is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Helen Garrott: 75%, Rosa Venables: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Helen Garrott: 54%, Rosa Venables: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Helen Garrott: 840, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Rosa Venables: 302, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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