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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: University of Bath 5 v Weston Donkeys (Wed 02 Nov 2016)Match played between Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth (home) and Siobhan Thomas (away).Match won by Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth. Result: 9-6,9-7,9-5. Starting level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 760, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Siobhan Thomas: 520, level confidence: 68%. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Siobhan Thomas. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth played 34% better than Siobhan Thomas in this match. In this case, Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth played at level 712 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth would normally have been playing at level 727 (based on typical behaviour), Siobhan Thomas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth changes to 0% and Siobhan Thomas changes to +1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth becomes 0% and for Siobhan Thomas becomes +1.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth is 0% and for Siobhan Thomas is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 87%, Siobhan Thomas: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 84%, Siobhan Thomas: 79%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 759, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Siobhan Thomas: 529, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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