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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: University of Bath 5 v BAWA (Wed 30 Nov 2016)Match played between Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell (home) and Hazel Dyke (away).Match won by Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell. Result: 9-2,9-0,9-5. Starting level for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell: 889, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Hazel Dyke: 341, level confidence: 31%. Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell to win as he is currently playing 161% better than Hazel Dyke. Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell played 97% better than Hazel Dyke in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 539 and 889 without affecting his level. In this case, Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell played at level 692 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell would normally have been playing at level 712 (based on typical behaviour), Hazel Dyke played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell changes to 0% and Hazel Dyke changes to +0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell becomes 0% and for Hazel Dyke becomes +0.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell is 0% and for Hazel Dyke is +0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell: 32%, Hazel Dyke: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell: 27%, Hazel Dyke: 48%. A final adjustment of +3.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell: 933, level confidence: 27%. Final level for Hazel Dyke: 353, level confidence: 48%. Notes
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