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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside v University of Bath 1 (Wed 09 Nov 2016)Match played between Theis Houlberg (home) and Charlie Griggs (away).Match won by Theis Houlberg. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-6:11-9,10-12,6-11,12-14:11-6,5-11,11-8,10-12,6-11:12-10,13-11,5-11,7-11:10-12,8-11,9-11. Starting level for Theis Houlberg: 7,056, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Charlie Griggs: 5,168, level confidence: 56%. Theis Houlberg to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Charlie Griggs. Theis Houlberg won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Theis Houlberg played 56% better than Charlie Griggs in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Theis Houlberg actually played at a level of 7,553 and Charlie Griggs at a level of 4,828. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Theis Houlberg changes to +4.3% and Charlie Griggs changes to -6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Theis Houlberg becomes +1.9% and for Charlie Griggs becomes -2.6%. Given Theis Houlberg's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8% has been applied to his level change. Given Charlie Griggs's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Theis Houlberg is +1.4% and for Charlie Griggs is -1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Theis Houlberg: 89%, Charlie Griggs: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Theis Houlberg: 83%, Charlie Griggs: 70%. A final adjustment of +2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Theis Houlberg: 7,165, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Charlie Griggs: 5,265, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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