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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 05 Oct 2016)Match played between Rusty Pearce (home) and Declan Heaslewood (away).Match won by Rusty Pearce. Result: 11-8,9-11,11-7,11-5. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 5,188, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Declan Heaslewood: 3,709, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Rusty Pearce to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Declan Heaslewood. Rusty Pearce won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rusty Pearce played 28% better than Declan Heaslewood in this match. As Rusty Pearce has played below his allowed range at 4,777, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Rusty Pearce would normally have been playing at level 5,007 (based on typical behaviour), Declan Heaslewood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce changes to 0% and Declan Heaslewood changes to +1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce becomes -0.1% and for Declan Heaslewood becomes +1%. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Rusty Pearce is 0% and for Declan Heaslewood is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rusty Pearce: 79%, Declan Heaslewood: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rusty Pearce: 76%, Declan Heaslewood: 88%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 5,178, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Declan Heaslewood: 3,752, level confidence: 88%. Notes
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