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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bath 1 (Tue 11 Oct 2016)Match played between Antonio De La Torre (home) and Charlie Griggs (away).Match won by Antonio De La Torre. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-3:11-7,11-13,12-10,14-12:12-10,14-12,11-5:4-11,12-10,11-6,7-11,11-5:6-11,11-8,6-11,2-11. Starting level for Antonio De La Torre: 8,242, level confidence: 18%. Starting level for Charlie Griggs: 4,724, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Antonio De La Torre to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Charlie Griggs. Antonio De La Torre won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Antonio De La Torre played 136% better than Charlie Griggs in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Antonio De La Torre actually played at a level of 9,580 and Charlie Griggs at a level of 4,064. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Antonio De La Torre changes to +12% and Charlie Griggs changes to -2.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Antonio De La Torre becomes +3.8% and for Charlie Griggs becomes -1.5%. Given Antonio De La Torre's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Antonio De La Torre is +2.6% and for Charlie Griggs is -1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Antonio De La Torre: 43%, Charlie Griggs: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Antonio De La Torre: 37%, Charlie Griggs: 77%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Antonio De La Torre: 8,395, level confidence: 37%. Final level for Charlie Griggs: 4,710, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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