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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v University of Bath 1 (Wed 07 Dec 2016)Match played between Sam Davidson (home) and James Thompson (away).Match won by James Thompson. Result: 4-11,2-11,11-13. Starting level for Sam Davidson: 5,713, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for James Thompson: 4,669, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Sam Davidson to win as he is currently playing 22% better than James Thompson. James Thompson won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Thompson played 106% better than Sam Davidson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Thompson actually played at a level of 7,411 and Sam Davidson at a level of 3,599. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 59% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Thompson changes to +44% and Sam Davidson changes to -52%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Thompson becomes +12.5% and for Sam Davidson becomes -14%. Given Sam Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for James Thompson is +9.4% and for Sam Davidson is -9.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sam Davidson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Thompson: 87%, Sam Davidson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Thompson: 55%, Sam Davidson: 51%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Davidson: 5,433, level confidence: 51%. Final level for James Thompson: 5,098, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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