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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Gordano A v David Lloyd Lovecars (Wed 09 Nov 2016)Match played between Edwin Swidenbank (home) and Chris Wood (away).Match won by Chris Wood. Result: 4-9,3-9,1-9. Starting level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,635, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Chris Wood: 3,747, level confidence: 68%. Chris Wood to win as he is currently playing 129% better than Edwin Swidenbank. Chris Wood won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Wood played 86% better than Edwin Swidenbank in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Wood was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,524 and 3,747 without affecting his level. In this case, Chris Wood played at level 3,092 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Wood would normally have been playing at level 3,144 (based on typical behaviour), Edwin Swidenbank played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Wood changes to 0% and Edwin Swidenbank changes to +1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Wood becomes 0% and for Edwin Swidenbank becomes +0.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Chris Wood is 0% and for Edwin Swidenbank is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Wood: 83%, Edwin Swidenbank: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Wood: 74%, Edwin Swidenbank: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,635, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Chris Wood: 3,716, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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