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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Thornbury C v Gordano A (Wed 26 Oct 2016)Match played between Nigel Tovey (home) and Darran Venn (away).Match won by Darran Venn. Result: 1-9,0-9,2-9:9-7,9-5,4-9,5-9,2-9:4-9,9-6,0-9,9-4,5-9:9-1,10-9,4-9,6-9,9-4:9-0,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Nigel Tovey: 1,706, level confidence: 42%. Starting level for Darran Venn: 3,224, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Darran Venn to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Nigel Tovey. Darran Venn won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darran Venn played 209% better than Nigel Tovey in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Darran Venn actually played at a level of 4,123 and Nigel Tovey at a level of 1,334. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darran Venn changes to +12% and Nigel Tovey changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darran Venn becomes +4.8% and for Nigel Tovey becomes -8.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Darran Venn is +3.6% and for Nigel Tovey is -6.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nigel Tovey is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darran Venn: 84%, Nigel Tovey: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darran Venn: 65%, Nigel Tovey: 51%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nigel Tovey: 1,622, level confidence: 51%. Final level for Darran Venn: 3,336, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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