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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Gordano A v Thornbury C (Wed 30 Nov 2016)Match played between Edwin Swidenbank (home) and Mick Dixon (away).Match won by Edwin Swidenbank. Result: 9-7,9-1,9-0. Starting level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,694, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Mick Dixon: 1,597, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Edwin Swidenbank to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Mick Dixon. Edwin Swidenbank won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edwin Swidenbank played 86% better than Mick Dixon in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edwin Swidenbank actually played at a level of 2,243 and Mick Dixon at a level of 1,206. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank changes to +31% and Mick Dixon changes to -27%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank becomes +13.1% and for Mick Dixon becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank is +9.8% and for Mick Dixon is -8.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mick Dixon is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edwin Swidenbank: 83%, Mick Dixon: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edwin Swidenbank: 63%, Mick Dixon: 67%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,869, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Mick Dixon: 1,532, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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