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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd Lovecars v University of Bath 2 (Tue 25 Oct 2016)Match played between Grant Jones (home) and Ben Avison (away).Match won by Grant Jones. Result: 9-2,9-4,9-1. Starting level for Grant Jones: 3,006, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Ben Avison: 776, level confidence: 61%. Grant Jones to win as he is currently playing 287% better than Ben Avison. Grant Jones won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Grant Jones played 97% better than Ben Avison in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Grant Jones was taking it easy by anything up to 33%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,211 and 3,006 without affecting his level. In this case, Grant Jones played at level 1,752 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Grant Jones would normally have been playing at level 2,007 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Avison played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Grant Jones changes to 0% and Ben Avison changes to +7.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Grant Jones becomes 0% and for Ben Avison becomes +5.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Grant Jones is 0% and for Ben Avison is +3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Grant Jones: 79%, Ben Avison: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Grant Jones: 56%, Ben Avison: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Grant Jones: 3,002, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Ben Avison: 804, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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