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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: Redland Old Doubles 1 v Kingsdown Stallions (Wed 17 Aug 2011)Match played between Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella (home) and Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz (away).Match won by Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella. Result: 15-7,16-17,15-1,15-7:15-13,15-7,15-3. Starting level for Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 795, level confidence: 43%. Starting level for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz: 551, level confidence: 30%. Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz. Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella won 75% of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 91% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella played 47% better than Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella actually played at a level of 802 and Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz at a level of 547. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 0.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella changes to +0.5% and Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz changes to -0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella becomes +0.5% and for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz becomes -0.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2011' so the adjustment for Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella is +0.4% and for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz is -0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 66%, Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 65%, Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz: 54%. Final level for Andy Gyles/Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 798, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey/Zsolt Husz: 548, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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