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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Thornbury A (Wed 11 Jan 2017)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Callum Davidson (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-1:11-8,7-11,11-6,11-7:12-10,11-9,12-10:8-11,11-5,11-9,8-11,11-8:11-7,11-9,11-8. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 9,612, level confidence: 20%. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 6,247, level confidence: 54%. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Callum Davidson. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 83% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 371% better than Callum Davidson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 16,825 and Callum Davidson at a level of 3,569. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 75% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 57% and 57% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +57% and Callum Davidson changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +12.9% and for Callum Davidson becomes -5.1%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.1% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +8.3% and for Callum Davidson is -3.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 45%, Callum Davidson: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 26%, Callum Davidson: 42%. A final adjustment of +13.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 13,293, level confidence: 26%. Final level for Callum Davidson: 6,108, level confidence: 42%. Notes
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