|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 22 Feb 2017)Match played between Callum Davidson (home) and Jeremy Goulding (away).Match won by Callum Davidson. Result: 11-2,11-5,11-6. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 5,532, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Jeremy Goulding: 3,925, level confidence: 59%. Callum Davidson to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Jeremy Goulding. Callum Davidson won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Davidson played 154% better than Jeremy Goulding in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Callum Davidson actually played at a level of 7,424 and Jeremy Goulding at a level of 2,925. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Davidson changes to +23% and Jeremy Goulding changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Davidson becomes +7.1% and for Jeremy Goulding becomes -9.1%. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Callum Davidson is +5.2% and for Jeremy Goulding is -6.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jeremy Goulding is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Davidson: 85%, Jeremy Goulding: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Davidson: 63%, Jeremy Goulding: 57%. A final adjustment of +1.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Callum Davidson: 6,034, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Jeremy Goulding: 3,736, level confidence: 57%. Notes
|