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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 01 Mar 2017)Match played between Rusty Pearce (home) and Will Kingwell (away).Match won by Rusty Pearce. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-5. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 5,031, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Will Kingwell: 6,391, level confidence: 45%. Will Kingwell to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Rusty Pearce. Rusty Pearce won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rusty Pearce played 74% better than Will Kingwell in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rusty Pearce actually played at a level of 7,473 and Will Kingwell at a level of 4,303. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 42% and 42% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce changes to +25% and Will Kingwell changes to -42%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce becomes +7.8% and for Will Kingwell becomes -11%. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Given Will Kingwell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.6% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Rusty Pearce is +5.8% and for Will Kingwell is -7.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rusty Pearce: 87%, Will Kingwell: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rusty Pearce: 59%, Will Kingwell: 45%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 5,266, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Will Kingwell: 6,002, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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