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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 25 Jan 2017)Match played between Theis Houlberg (home) and Dan West (away).Match won by Dan West. Result: 11-9,3-11,4-11,5-11:9-11,12-10,4-11,11-9,9-11:11-4,11-7,11-4:11-9,7-11,11-9,14-12:11-9,11-8,1-11,6-11,10-12. Starting level for Theis Houlberg: 7,883, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Dan West: 12,774, level confidence: 41%. Dan West to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Theis Houlberg. Dan West won 75% of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan West played 44% better than Theis Houlberg in this match. In this case, Dan West played at level 11,644 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Dan West would normally have been playing at level 11,944 (based on typical behaviour), Theis Houlberg played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan West changes to 0% and Theis Houlberg changes to +1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan West becomes 0% and for Theis Houlberg becomes +0.6%. Given Theis Houlberg's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Dan West is 0% and for Theis Houlberg is +0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan West: 64%, Theis Houlberg: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan West: 60%, Theis Houlberg: 77%. A final adjustment of -3.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Theis Houlberg: 7,710, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Dan West: 12,224, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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