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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 08 Mar 2017)Match played between Dan West (home) and Theis Houlberg (away).Match won by Dan West. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-4:9-11,11-7,11-8,11-7:11-13,11-6,5-11,14-12,11-4:11-5,12-10,4-11,9-11,5-11:?-?. Starting level for Dan West: 12,852, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Theis Houlberg: 8,287, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Dan West to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Theis Houlberg. Dan West won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan West played 83% better than Theis Houlberg in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan West actually played at a level of 13,973 and Theis Houlberg at a level of 7,622. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 6.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan West changes to +6.9% and Theis Houlberg changes to -5.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan West becomes +2.3% and for Theis Houlberg becomes -2.2%. Given Dan West's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Given Theis Houlberg's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Dan West is +1.4% and for Theis Houlberg is -1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan West: 74%, Theis Houlberg: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan West: 68%, Theis Houlberg: 77%. A final adjustment of -2.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dan West: 12,526, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Theis Houlberg: 8,116, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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