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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Thornbury A (Wed 01 Feb 2017)Match played between Dale Diment (home) and Bradley Clare (away).Match won by Bradley Clare. Result: 10-12,9-11,11-4,8-11:11-13,7-11,11-13:9-11,11-9,8-11,11-5,13-11:8-11,11-7,11-5,11-2:2-11,7-11,11-7,9-11. Starting level for Dale Diment: 6,307, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 5,617, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Bradley Clare. Bradley Clare won 75% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bradley Clare played 17% better than Dale Diment in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bradley Clare actually played at a level of 6,431 and Dale Diment at a level of 5,509. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bradley Clare changes to +13% and Dale Diment changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bradley Clare becomes +4.6% and for Dale Diment becomes -4.5%. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.6% has been applied to his level change. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Bradley Clare is +3.3% and for Dale Diment is -3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bradley Clare: 84%, Dale Diment: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bradley Clare: 73%, Dale Diment: 73%. A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dale Diment: 6,215, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Bradley Clare: 5,816, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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