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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Redland Anacondas (Wed 15 Mar 2017)Match played between Jeremy Harris (home) and Rich Green (away).Match won by Jeremy Harris. Result: 12-10,11-4,11-9. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 7,976, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Starting level for Rich Green: 5,878, level confidence: 53%. Jeremy Harris to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Rich Green. Jeremy Harris won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Harris played 50% better than Rich Green in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeremy Harris actually played at a level of 8,391 and Rich Green at a level of 5,587. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris changes to +2.7% and Rich Green changes to -4.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris becomes +1.4% and for Rich Green becomes -2.1%. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Given Rich Green's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Jeremy Harris is +1% and for Rich Green is -1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Harris: 94%, Rich Green: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Harris: 89%, Rich Green: 69%. A final adjustment of -1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 8,005, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Rich Green: 5,611, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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