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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 01 Feb 2017)Match played between Andy Marsh (home) and Toby Harding (away).Match won by Toby Harding. Result: 12-14,9-11,2-11. Starting level for Andy Marsh: 5,593, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Toby Harding: 7,054, level confidence: 58%. Toby Harding to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Andy Marsh. Toby Harding won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Toby Harding played 56% better than Andy Marsh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Toby Harding actually played at a level of 7,846 and Andy Marsh at a level of 5,029. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.9% and 9.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Toby Harding changes to +9.9% and Andy Marsh changes to -8.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Toby Harding becomes +3.4% and for Andy Marsh becomes -3.2%. Given Toby Harding's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Marsh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Toby Harding is +2.4% and for Andy Marsh is -2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Toby Harding: 76%, Andy Marsh: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Toby Harding: 69%, Andy Marsh: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Marsh: 5,387, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Toby Harding: 7,201, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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