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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 15 Mar 2017)Match played between Theis Houlberg (home) and Andy Ewings (away).Match won by Theis Houlberg. Result: 8-11,11-7,11-6,11-9:11-9,3-11,11-3,11-5:11-6,11-3,11-6:11-8,11-2,11-5:6-11,12-10,11-6,11-9. Starting level for Theis Houlberg: 8,116, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,410, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Theis Houlberg to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Andy Ewings. Theis Houlberg won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Theis Houlberg played 25% better than Andy Ewings in this match. As Theis Houlberg has played below his allowed range at 7,000, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Theis Houlberg would normally have been playing at level 7,724 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Ewings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 5.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Theis Houlberg changes to -2.9% and Andy Ewings changes to +5.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Theis Houlberg becomes -1.5% and for Andy Ewings becomes +2.5%. Given Theis Houlberg's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Theis Houlberg is -1% and for Andy Ewings is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Theis Houlberg: 86%, Andy Ewings: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Theis Houlberg: 78%, Andy Ewings: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Theis Houlberg: 8,019, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,448, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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