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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 15 Mar 2017)Match played between Richard King (home) and Andy Killey (away).Match won by Richard King. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-6. Starting level for Richard King: 4,374, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy Killey: 4,317, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Richard King to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Andy Killey. Richard King won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard King played 120% better than Andy Killey in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard King actually played at a level of 6,445 and Andy Killey at a level of 2,930. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard King changes to +47% and Andy Killey changes to -47%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard King becomes +13.4% and for Andy Killey becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Richard King is +10% and for Andy Killey is -9.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andy Killey is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard King: 91%, Andy Killey: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard King: 62%, Andy Killey: 62%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard King: 4,804, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Andy Killey: 4,113, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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