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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 22 Mar 2017)Match played between Andy Marsh (home) and Dale Diment (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 11-9,10-12,11-8,7-11,3-11. Starting level for Andy Marsh: 5,303, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Dale Diment: 6,791, level confidence: 62%. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Andy Marsh. Dale Diment won 60% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 13% better than Andy Marsh in this match. As Dale Diment has played below his allowed range at 6,232, his level reduction is 4.1% before damping. On the assumption that Dale Diment would normally have been playing at level 6,655 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Marsh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 4.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to -3.6% and Andy Marsh changes to +3.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes -1.8% and for Andy Marsh becomes +1.9%. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.1% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Marsh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is -1.3% and for Andy Marsh is +1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 79%, Andy Marsh: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 74%, Andy Marsh: 84%. A final adjustment of +2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Marsh: 5,496, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Dale Diment: 6,823, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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