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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 22 Mar 2017)Match played between Rusty Pearce (home) and Toby Harding (away).Match won by Toby Harding. Result: 6-11,3-11,4-11. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 5,217, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Toby Harding: 7,117, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Toby Harding to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Rusty Pearce. Toby Harding won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Toby Harding played 154% better than Rusty Pearce in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Toby Harding actually played at a level of 9,708 and Rusty Pearce at a level of 3,824. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Toby Harding changes to +27% and Rusty Pearce changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Toby Harding becomes +7.4% and for Rusty Pearce becomes -9%. Given Toby Harding's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.2% has been applied to his level change. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Toby Harding is +5.1% and for Rusty Pearce is -6.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rusty Pearce is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Toby Harding: 91%, Rusty Pearce: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Toby Harding: 67%, Rusty Pearce: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 4,961, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Toby Harding: 7,472, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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