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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Shepton Mallet A v Redland Z (Wed 22 Feb 2017)Match played between George Sowrey-Cookson (home) and Mike Martin (away).Match won by George Sowrey-Cookson. Result: 12-10,12-10,11-7:11-5,8-11,11-5,13-11:11-8,11-9,11-6:11-7,11-7,13-11:11-6,11-9,8-11,8-11,11-5. Starting level for George Sowrey-Cookson: 5,490, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Mike Martin: 4,029, level confidence: 42%. George Sowrey-Cookson to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Mike Martin. George Sowrey-Cookson won all of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Sowrey-Cookson played 38% better than Mike Martin in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Sowrey-Cookson actually played at a level of 5,525 and Mike Martin at a level of 4,004. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Sowrey-Cookson changes to +0.4% and Mike Martin changes to -0.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Sowrey-Cookson becomes +0.2% and for Mike Martin becomes -0.3%. Given George Sowrey-Cookson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for George Sowrey-Cookson is 0% and for Mike Martin is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Sowrey-Cookson: 78%, Mike Martin: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Sowrey-Cookson: 77%, Mike Martin: 64%. A final adjustment of +1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George Sowrey-Cookson: 5,674, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Mike Martin: 4,041, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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