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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Shepton Mallet A v Workout Harbourside (Wed 29 Mar 2017)Match played between Sam Price (home) and Ben Thyer (away).Match won by Ben Thyer. Result: 11-8,11-2,6-11,8-11,8-11. Starting level for Sam Price: 4,714, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Thyer: 2,192, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Sam Price to win as he is currently playing 115% better than Ben Thyer. Ben Thyer won 60% of the games and 49% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Thyer played 7% better than Sam Price in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Thyer actually played at a level of 3,324 and Sam Price at a level of 3,109. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Thyer changes to +33% and Sam Price changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Thyer becomes +12.4% and for Sam Price becomes -8.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Ben Thyer is +9.3% and for Sam Price is -6.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sam Price is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Thyer: 87%, Sam Price: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Thyer: 57%, Sam Price: 60%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Price: 4,508, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Ben Thyer: 2,393, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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