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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Redland Z v Redland B (Wed 22 Mar 2017)Match played between Mike Martin (home) and Mike George (away).Match won by Mike Martin. Result: 9-2,9-2,9-0. Starting level for Mike Martin: 4,013, level confidence: 87%. Set manually. Starting level for Mike George: 2,539, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Mike Martin to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Mike George. Mike Martin won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Martin played 164% better than Mike George in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Martin actually played at a level of 5,186 and Mike George at a level of 1,965. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Martin changes to +22% and Mike George changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Martin becomes +7.4% and for Mike George becomes -8.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Mike Martin is +5.5% and for Mike George is -6.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike George is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Martin: 93%, Mike George: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Martin: 72%, Mike George: 71%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Martin: 4,302, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Mike George: 2,414, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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