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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Thornbury B v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 18 Jan 2017)Match played between Cliff Hall (home) and Paul Hockett (away).Match won by Paul Hockett. Result: 9-10,1-9,1-9. Starting level for Cliff Hall: 1,507, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Paul Hockett: 3,583, level confidence: 60%. Paul Hockett to win as he is currently playing 138% better than Cliff Hall. Paul Hockett won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Hockett played 63% better than Cliff Hall in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Hockett was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,346 and 3,583 without affecting his level. In this case, Paul Hockett played at level 2,700 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Hockett would normally have been playing at level 2,968 (based on typical behaviour), Cliff Hall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Hockett changes to 0% and Cliff Hall changes to +6.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Hockett becomes 0% and for Cliff Hall becomes +3.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Paul Hockett is 0% and for Cliff Hall is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Hockett: 78%, Cliff Hall: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Hockett: 64%, Cliff Hall: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Cliff Hall: 1,549, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Paul Hockett: 3,551, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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