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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: David Lloyd Lovecars v Lansdown 2 (Wed 22 Mar 2017)Match played between Maxine Hobbs (home) and Jonathan Cordier (away).Match won by Jonathan Cordier. Result: 2-9,0-9,3-9. Starting level for Maxine Hobbs: 1,113, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Jonathan Cordier: 1,877, level confidence: 46%. Jonathan Cordier to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Maxine Hobbs. Jonathan Cordier won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Cordier played 134% better than Maxine Hobbs in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonathan Cordier actually played at a level of 2,211 and Maxine Hobbs at a level of 945. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Cordier changes to +13% and Maxine Hobbs changes to -13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Cordier becomes +6.2% and for Maxine Hobbs becomes -7.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Jonathan Cordier is +4.6% and for Maxine Hobbs is -5.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Maxine Hobbs is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Cordier: 68%, Maxine Hobbs: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Cordier: 57%, Maxine Hobbs: 57%. A final adjustment of -3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Maxine Hobbs: 1,007, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Jonathan Cordier: 1,948, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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