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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 2 v Weston String Strokers (Wed 11 Jan 2017)Match played between Ben Avison (home) and Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe (away).Match won by Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe. Result: 1-9,4-9,6-9. Starting level for Ben Avison: 1,032, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,839, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Ben Avison. Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe played 57% better than Ben Avison in this match. In this case, Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe played at level 1,648 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe would normally have been playing at level 1,676 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Avison played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe changes to 0% and Ben Avison changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe becomes 0% and for Ben Avison becomes +1.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe is 0% and for Ben Avison is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 84%, Ben Avison: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 79%, Ben Avison: 66%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Avison: 1,042, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,850, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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