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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Thornbury C v University of Bath 2 (Wed 29 Mar 2017)Match played between Mick Dixon (home) and Miles Jeanneret (away).Match won by Miles Jeanneret. Result: 2-9,1-9,0-9. Starting level for Mick Dixon: 1,699, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,298, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Miles Jeanneret to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Mick Dixon. Miles Jeanneret won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jeanneret played 209% better than Mick Dixon in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jeanneret actually played at a level of 3,473 and Mick Dixon at a level of 1,124. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret changes to +37% and Mick Dixon changes to -43%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret becomes +13.5% and for Mick Dixon becomes -17%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret is +10.1% and for Mick Dixon is -12%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mick Dixon is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jeanneret: 91%, Mick Dixon: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jeanneret: 60%, Mick Dixon: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mick Dixon: 1,616, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,524, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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