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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd Battle Oats v Weston String Strokers (Wed 08 Mar 2017)Match played between Richard Davies (home) and George 'Warm-Up' Weston (away).Match won by George 'Warm-Up' Weston. Result: 4-9,9-6,8-10,7-9. Starting level for Richard Davies: 1,878, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 2,358, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. George 'Warm-Up' Weston to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Richard Davies. George 'Warm-Up' Weston won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George 'Warm-Up' Weston played 20% better than Richard Davies in this match. As George 'Warm-Up' Weston has played below his allowed range at 2,265, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that George 'Warm-Up' Weston would normally have been playing at level 2,318 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Davies played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston changes to 0% and Richard Davies changes to +1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston becomes -0.1% and for Richard Davies becomes +0.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston is 0% and for Richard Davies is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 90%, Richard Davies: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 88%, Richard Davies: 84%. A final adjustment of -3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Davies: 1,872, level confidence: 84%. Final level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 2,243, level confidence: 88%. Notes
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