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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd Battle Oats v University of Bath 2 (Wed 05 Apr 2017)Match played between Matt Sharp (home) and Miles Jeanneret (away).Match won by Miles Jeanneret. Result: 4-9,9-10,0-9. Starting level for Matt Sharp: 1,337, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,581, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Miles Jeanneret to win as he is currently playing 93% better than Matt Sharp. Miles Jeanneret won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jeanneret played 50% better than Matt Sharp in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Miles Jeanneret was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,976 and 2,581 without affecting his level. In this case, Miles Jeanneret played at level 2,146 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Miles Jeanneret would normally have been playing at level 2,292 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Sharp played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret changes to 0% and Matt Sharp changes to +4.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret becomes 0% and for Matt Sharp becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret is 0% and for Matt Sharp is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jeanneret: 84%, Matt Sharp: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jeanneret: 74%, Matt Sharp: 75%. A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matt Sharp: 1,399, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,577, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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