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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Redland Dodos v BAWA / Kingswood (Wed 22 Feb 2017)Match played between Jonathan Platt (home) and Simon Strange (away).Match won by Jonathan Platt. Result: 9-4,9-4,9-0. Starting level for Jonathan Platt: 1,512, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Simon Strange: 1,487, level confidence: 69%. Jonathan Platt to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Simon Strange. Jonathan Platt won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Platt played 86% better than Simon Strange in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonathan Platt actually played at a level of 2,045 and Simon Strange at a level of 1,099. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Platt changes to +35% and Simon Strange changes to -33%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Platt becomes +15% and for Simon Strange becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Jonathan Platt is +11% and for Simon Strange is -10.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jonathan Platt is limited to +10% and Simon Strange is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Platt: 81%, Simon Strange: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Platt: 60%, Simon Strange: 61%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jonathan Platt: 1,646, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Simon Strange: 1,397, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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