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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Lansdown 3 v Westbury David Lloyd B (Wed 25 Jan 2017)Match played between Phil Cooney (home) and Craig Phillips (away).Match won by Phil Cooney. Result: 9-5,9-1,9-1. Starting level for Phil Cooney: 1,607, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Craig Phillips: 1,200, level confidence: 68%. Phil Cooney to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Craig Phillips. Phil Cooney won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Cooney played 97% better than Craig Phillips in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Cooney actually played at a level of 1,949 and Craig Phillips at a level of 989. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Cooney changes to +15% and Craig Phillips changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Cooney becomes +7.2% and for Craig Phillips becomes -9.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Phil Cooney is +5.4% and for Craig Phillips is -7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Craig Phillips is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Cooney: 91%, Craig Phillips: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Cooney: 75%, Craig Phillips: 68%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Phil Cooney: 1,698, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Craig Phillips: 1,141, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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