|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: Whitchurch Imperial A v University of Bath 4 (Wed 01 Mar 2017)Match played between Lee Rudge (home) and Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth (away).Match won by Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth. Result: 9-7,8-10,2-9,0-9. Starting level for Lee Rudge: 511, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 771, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Lee Rudge. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth won 75% of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth played 29% better than Lee Rudge in this match. As Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth has played below his allowed range at 674, his level reduction is 2% before damping. On the assumption that Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth would normally have been playing at level 733 (based on typical behaviour), Lee Rudge played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 4.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth changes to 0% and Lee Rudge changes to +4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth becomes -0.2% and for Lee Rudge becomes +3.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth is 0% and for Lee Rudge is +2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 86%, Lee Rudge: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 79%, Lee Rudge: 29%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lee Rudge: 524, level confidence: 29%. Final level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 769, level confidence: 79%. Notes
|