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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: University of Bath 4 v Shepton Mallet B (Wed 05 Apr 2017)Match played between Oli Peeke-Vout (home) and Simon Ashfield (away).Match won by Oli Peeke-Vout. Result: 5-9,7-9,9-7,9-0,10-8:9-2,9-3,9-7:2-9,9-1,9-6,9-6:1-9,2-9,4-9:?-?. Starting level for Oli Peeke-Vout: 1,370, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon Ashfield: 1,865, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Simon Ashfield to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Oli Peeke-Vout. Oli Peeke-Vout won 60% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oli Peeke-Vout played 10% better than Simon Ashfield in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oli Peeke-Vout actually played at a level of 1,678 and Simon Ashfield at a level of 1,522. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oli Peeke-Vout changes to +19% and Simon Ashfield changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oli Peeke-Vout becomes +9.3% and for Simon Ashfield becomes -8.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Oli Peeke-Vout is +7% and for Simon Ashfield is -6.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Ashfield is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oli Peeke-Vout: 88%, Simon Ashfield: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oli Peeke-Vout: 72%, Simon Ashfield: 71%. A final adjustment of -3.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Oli Peeke-Vout: 1,450, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Simon Ashfield: 1,685, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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