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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Workout Harbourside v Kingswood Originals (Wed 08 Mar 2017)Match played between Will Cheek (home) and Neale Saunders (away).Match won by Neale Saunders. Result: 8-10,5-9,7-9. Starting level for Will Cheek: 722, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Neale Saunders: 610, level confidence: 62%. Will Cheek to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Neale Saunders. Neale Saunders won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neale Saunders played 30% better than Will Cheek in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neale Saunders actually played at a level of 757 and Will Cheek at a level of 582. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neale Saunders changes to +19% and Will Cheek changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neale Saunders becomes +10.9% and for Will Cheek becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Neale Saunders is +8.2% and for Will Cheek is -8.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Will Cheek is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neale Saunders: 79%, Will Cheek: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neale Saunders: 63%, Will Cheek: 59%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Will Cheek: 669, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Neale Saunders: 668, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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