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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: David Lloyd C v Redland Eagles (Tue 24 Jan 2017)Match played between Chris Gledhill (home) and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (away).Match won by Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Result: 7-9,5-9,6-9. Starting level for Chris Gledhill: 626, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 779, level confidence: 62%. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Chris Gledhill. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played 34% better than Chris Gledhill in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss actually played at a level of 809 and Chris Gledhill at a level of 603. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to +3.5% and Chris Gledhill changes to -2.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes +3.2% and for Chris Gledhill becomes -2.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is +2.4% and for Chris Gledhill is -2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 79%, Chris Gledhill: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 76%, Chris Gledhill: 83%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Gledhill: 612, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 797, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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