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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Redland Eagles v David Lloyd C (Thu 09 Mar 2017)Match played between Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (home) and Chris 'League' Adams (away).Match won by Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Result: 9-7,9-4,9-3. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,175, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Chris 'League' Adams: 938, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Chris 'League' Adams. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played 46% better than Chris 'League' Adams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams actually played at a level of 1,267 and Chris 'League' Adams at a level of 870. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to +7% and Chris 'League' Adams changes to -6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes +4.6% and for Chris 'League' Adams becomes -4.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is +3.5% and for Chris 'League' Adams is -3.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 84%, Chris 'League' Adams: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 78%, Chris 'League' Adams: 83%. A final adjustment of -3.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,187, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Chris 'League' Adams: 870, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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