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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Workout Harbourside v David Lloyd C (Wed 01 Feb 2017)Match played between Will Cheek (home) and Chris 'League' Adams (away).Match won by Will Cheek. Result: 9-7,9-7,1-9,9-6. Starting level for Will Cheek: 365, level confidence: 16%. Starting level for Chris 'League' Adams: 782, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Chris 'League' Adams to win as he is currently playing 114% better than Will Cheek. Will Cheek won 75% of the games and 49% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Cheek played 16% better than Chris 'League' Adams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Will Cheek actually played at a level of 576 and Chris 'League' Adams at a level of 496. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 58% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Cheek changes to +37% and Chris 'League' Adams changes to -5.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Cheek becomes +18.6% and for Chris 'League' Adams becomes -4.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Will Cheek is +14% and for Chris 'League' Adams is -3.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Will Cheek is limited to +10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Cheek: 39%, Chris 'League' Adams: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Cheek: 25%, Chris 'League' Adams: 55%. A final adjustment of +34.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Will Cheek: 695, level confidence: 25%. Final level for Chris 'League' Adams: 793, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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