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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Redland Eagles v Weston Shankers (Wed 01 Feb 2017)Match played between Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella (home) and Allan Milnes (away).Match won by Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella. Result: 9-3,9-4,9-3. Starting level for Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 947, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Allan Milnes: 732, level confidence: 63%. Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Allan Milnes. Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella played 67% better than Allan Milnes in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella actually played at a level of 1,076 and Allan Milnes at a level of 644. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella changes to +12% and Allan Milnes changes to -1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella becomes +7.3% and for Allan Milnes becomes -1.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella is +5.5% and for Allan Milnes is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 32%, Allan Milnes: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 28%, Allan Milnes: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 995, level confidence: 28%. Final level for Allan Milnes: 721, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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