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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Thornbury E v Redland Eagles (Thu 09 Feb 2017)Match played between Matt Brown (home) and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (away).Match won by Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Result: 6-9,9-7,6-9,0-9. Starting level for Matt Brown: 906, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,265, level confidence: 69%. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Matt Brown. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams won 75% of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played 26% better than Matt Brown in this match. As Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams has played below his allowed range at 1,157, his level reduction is 1.1% before damping. On the assumption that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams would normally have been playing at level 1,221 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Brown played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to -0.9% and Matt Brown changes to +2.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes -0.8% and for Matt Brown becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is -0.6% and for Matt Brown is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 83%, Matt Brown: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 79%, Matt Brown: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matt Brown: 923, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,255, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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