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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Redland Eagles v Thornbury E (Thu 23 Mar 2017)Match played between Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (home) and Matt Brown (away).Match won by Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Result: 8-10,9-6,9-3,9-1. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,143, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Matt Brown: 911, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Matt Brown. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams won 75% of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played 28% better than Matt Brown in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams actually played at a level of 1,156 and Matt Brown at a level of 901. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to +0.9% and Matt Brown changes to -1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes +0.8% and for Matt Brown becomes -1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is +0.6% and for Matt Brown is -0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 91%, Matt Brown: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 90%, Matt Brown: 84%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,148, level confidence: 90%. Final level for Matt Brown: 903, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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